| The influence of Sino US trade war on domestic labor export |
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| How much impact does the Sino US trade war have on China's economy? 7. China's export data in August was stronger than expected, and exports to the United States were not impacted, but maintained a strong growth rate. On this basis, there are optimistic views that the Sino US trade war has little impact on China's economy and exports. We believe that the impact of a trade war cannot be underestimated. In the short term, although the exports to the United States were not affected in July and August, they were concerned about the uncertainty of trade war and scrambled for exports ahead of time. Recently, the freight index of the East and west of the United States has soared, and flights to the United States have burst and the transport capacity is insufficient. This just reflects the hidden worry behind the "good" data of China's exports to the United States. In 2017, China's exports of goods to the United States accounted for 19% of China's total exports of goods. The export of goods to the United States was not only concentrated in the traditional labor-intensive industries, but also increased significantly with the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. Exports to the United States have created many employment opportunities for China, and the increasingly fierce trade war may lead to unemployment. An alternative to the US export market is not easy to get. Although theoretically, after the outbreak of Sino US trade, China's exports to the United States can be transferred to other countries and regions. However, the proportion of China's main export commodities in the import volume of other major exporting countries has been quite high, and the space for further increasing the export proportion and market share is extremely limited. It is very difficult to find an alternative market for the US market. Recently, the risks in emerging markets have increased, and it is difficult for China to further export to emerging market countries. The impact of Sino US trade war on industrial chain can not be underestimated, which is difficult to calculate accurately by mathematical model. More and more multinational enterprises are hesitant to invest in China because of the uncertainty of Sino US trade war, and are gradually adjusting their global distribution. In dealing with the trade war, we should neither turn pale nor despise. Although the explicit impact of trade war can be calculated, the impact of trade war upgrading on investment prospects, entrepreneur confidence, industrial chain and upstream and downstream industries is difficult to estimate. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant and deal with it actively. 7. China's export data in August was stronger than expected, with a growth rate of about 10%. Among them, even under the background of the haze of the trade war, China's export to the United States has not been impacted, but maintained a strong growth rate. In August, China's export growth rate to the United States was 13%, which was not only higher than the average level of exports to Europe, Japan and other developed countries, but also higher than the 11.2% growth rate in July. On this basis, there are optimistic views that the Sino US trade war has little impact on China's economy and exports. Recently, Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the people's Bank of China, also mentioned during his participation in the Ambos forum in Italy that the negative impact of the trade war on China's economy is limited. According to the mathematical model, the impact of the trade war on China's economic growth is less than 0.5%. China can resist the impact of trade war by opening up overseas markets outside the United States. The trade war is mainly to weaken investors' confidence in Chinese enterprises and the stock market. For example, the current downturn in the domestic stock market is related to investors' nervousness, but other domestic factors have also led to this round of market turbulence. To be sure, the risk of a trade war is bound to affect investor confidence. Since the beginning of this year, China's stock market has fallen sharply due to domestic and foreign difficulties. The Shanghai composite index once fell below 2700, with a drop of 20% since the beginning of the year. Among them, the external environment mainly comes from the worry about the continuous escalation of Sino US trade war, while the internal environment mainly reflects the pessimism of investors on the continuous downward trend of China's economy under the background of deleveraging and tight fiscal constraints. In contrast, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose instead of falling this year. However, the impact of the trade war on China's economy is far more than that. In the short term, although exports to the United States were not affected in July and August, according to our observation, this is related to the phenomenon that exporters are worried about the uncertainty of trade war and grab exports ahead of time. Recently, we visited Xiamen and learned from the investigation with local export enterprises that American customers are very worried about tariff increase, saying that once the tariff is increased, it may lead to cost rise, so they ask to share the losses with domestic exporters in half. However, the current rush of China's exports to the United States is just the stress reaction to avoid tariff stick. According to the data, Xiamen's export container freight index fell by 3% overall this year, but the freight index of the East and west of the United States both rose by more than 30%. The explosion of flights to the United States and the lack of transport capacity just reflect the hidden worries behind the "good" data of China's exports to the United States in July and August. |
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